SIIA Haze Outlook 2021: Opportunities for Climate Action and Green Recovery

The SIIA Haze Outlook 2021, published last month and co-authored by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and Segi Enam Advisors, has something a little different than last year’s report—a segment exploring opportunities for climate action and green recovery, with particular focus on nature-based solutions (NBS) and carbon markets.

Theoretically, nature-based projects could lead to carbon emissions reduction and carbon offsets, while providing opportunities for investments. While the sector is still in its early stages of development, interest in carbon credits generated form Indonesia-based NBS projects is growing. The Katingan Mentaya Project managed by PT Rimba Makmur Utama illustrates this interest—a forest restoration and protection initiative located in Central Kalimantan, it generates an average of 7.5 million triple gold certified carbon credits a year, and carbon credits generated from the project have already been purchased by major global multinational firms.

Accordingly, many plantation companies that spoke to SIIA have expressed some interest in generating carbon credits from their own conservation projects, both current and future. Ultimately however, it is still too early to assess how willing project developers are to sell credits internationally compared to domestically.

Our previous posts on the SIIA Haze Outlook 2021: (1) Reviewing 2020; and (2) Issues to Watch in 2021

Read the full report here: SIIA Haze Outlook 2021

SIIA Haze Outlook 2021: Issues to Watch in 2021

Continuing from previous posts on SIIA’s Haze Outlook 2021, of which Segi Enam was the co-authors, there are several relevant issues that bear watching in 2021.

On the meteorological front, Indonesia is expected to enter into its usual June–September dry season following a wet spell that was in large part caused by La Niña. Meteorological departments generally expected this dry season to either remain normal or drier than it was in 2020 but much less so than the droughts in 2015 and 2019. Both the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomena are forecasted to stay neutral throughout the third quarter of 2021. Overall, however, meteorologists warn that there are still some uncertainty in these forecasts, since it is difficult to make predictions during the transition seasons from April to May.

Given the favourable weather conditions, policy and human factors become decidedly important in the evaluating the risk of a severe transboundary haze. On one hand, the relevant policies in effect are sending a strong message of commitment to sustainability on the part of the Indonesian government, particularly in the areas of peatland and mangrove conservation, net zero emission goals, and haze prevention in the midst of the pandemic. On the other, there are concerns that the more recent policies, namely the Omnibus Law and food estate programme, would leave adverse environmental consequences.

Source: Segi Enam Advisors based on data from The World Bank (2021) for palm oil and rubber prices, GFW (2021) for tree cover loss and primary forest loss, KLHK (n.d.) and KLHK (2017) for official estimated burned area in 2015, 2019, and 2020.

That being said, there are other factors that bear watching. The Covid-19 pandemic is the most obvious; while it has presently not resulted in a severe haze incident despite the disruptions it has caused to fire management efforts, its impact in 2021 and beyond remains unclear. What the pandemic has caused is a near multi-year high in prices within the agricultural commodity market, which in turn raises the question of whether it would drive Indonesia growers to carry out land clearing and replanting activities.

Read the full report here: SIIA Haze Report 2021

SIIA Haze Outlook 2021: Reviewing 2020

Last week, the annual Haze Outlook 2021 was launched, a report on the recurring haze event in Southeast Asia authored by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and Segi Enam Advisors. Part of the report reviewed the haze conditions—or lack thereof—in 2020.

While initial fears was that Southeast Asia would be battling both the Covid-19 pandemic and the annual transboundary haze simultaneously, no severe haze incident was recorded for in 2020. This was partly due to weather conditions within the region, i.e. a strong La Niña and a muted India Ocean Dipole phenomena resulted in one of the wettest year for Indonesia in the past decade, thereby dampening fire occurrences.

Consequently, much fewer hotspots were recorded in 2020 compared to 2019. The Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK) reported that some 297,000 hectares of land were burned in 2020 compared to the 1.6 million hectares in 2019.

Data: Hotspot imagery from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management Systems (FIRMS, https://earthdata.nasa.gov/firms), peatlands from Jiren et al. (2019), and Khor Reports estimates. Source: Segi Enam Advisors (2021).

Nonetheless, the outbreak of the coronavirus has had some effect on the Indonesian fire prevention landscape. For one, the pandemic appeared to have somewhat hindered replanting activities in the agricultural sector, although businesses and experts have indicated that this was more apparent in rural areas compared to urban centres. On the other hand, Covid-19 has adversely impacted Indonesia’s fire fighting and prevention capabilities: initiatives such as outreach programmes with fire-prone villages and corporate fire management efforts were scaled back and government resources had to be redirected to manage the pandemic.

Read the full report here: SIIA Haze Report 2021

SIIA Haze Outlook 2021

It is halfway through 2021, meaning it is time for another risk assessment report on the infamous haze within the Southeast Asia region. Together with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), we concluded that there is a low risk of a severe transboundary haze incident for this year, on account of favourable weather, pandemic-related disruption to land clearance and planting exercises, and proper forest management by various stakeholders, including the Indonesian government.

As usual, Segi Enam Advisors collected and examined qualitative and quantitative data from various sources, including recent academic literature, meteorological departments, and government agencies. We also provided geospatial analysis of key areas in the Riau and Central Kalimantan regions to give a geographical overview on hotspot intensity in relation to other information such has forest and peatland moratorium areas and districts with food estate projects in planning.

Read the full report here: SIIA Haze Outlook 2021

Edit (28.06.2021, 11.40 a.m.): ANTARA News covered the launch of the Haze Outlook 2021 report during SIIA’s virtual webinar on 24 June 2021. The article reported the statements made by guest speaker Herry Purnomo of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), who commended both the public and private sectors for their roles in reducing fires and deforestation, and SIIA chairman Professor Simon Tay, who opined that the extension of the Peat and Mangrove Restoration Agency’s tenure shows the Indonesian government’s fire prevention commitments.

SIIA Haze Outlook 2020: Policy Directions for 2019-2020

The risk assessment on the possibility and severity of a haze this year made in the SIIA Haze Report 2020 (authored by the Singaporean Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and Segi Enam Advisors) involved analysing the recent policy directions undertaken by the Indonesian government.

Naturally, much of the analysis was focused on the Peatland Restoration Agency (Badan Restorasi Gambut or BRG), the agency first set up by President Joko Widodo in 2016 with the mandate to re-wet 2.67 million hectares of peatland across seven provinces by 2020. By end-2018, BRG reported that it has restored 780,000 hectares of peatland, although observers have pointed out that the lack of transparency and independent monitoring made it difficult to verify that claim (Jong, 2020; Gewin 2020).

BRG’s ambitious goal to re-wet 2.67 million hectares of peatland required the corporation of several agencies and a funding of at least 39 trillion rupiah (USD2.73 billion) (Jong, 2018) (Photo credit: BRG)

Recent policy efforts are also aimed to halve the number of hotspots from the 2015 count by 2019, beginning with ensuring that 2.4 million hectares of peatland remain unburned and identifying up to 731 villages as fire-prone communities (Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs of Indonesia/KKBP et al., 2017). The government has taken various measures in attempt to achieve this objective, including upgrading early fire responses, increasing the enforcement of existing laws regarding forest concessions, and developing adequate infrastructure (such as water management systems) in fire-prone areas.

Read the full report for more information: SIIA Haze Report 2020

SIIA Haze Outlook 2020: Recent Literature Findings

Continuing from our work on the Haze Outlook 2020 published on 23 June 2020, Segi Enam reviewed in brief the recent literature pertaining to Indonesian and Malaysian peatland and fires. In the past couple of years, there were nearly 150 research papers and articles published, with almost half focusing on fire occurrences. A smaller, but significant portion of these articles area also on peatland management and mapping, as well as people-related topics including agricultural livelihood and health impacts.

One of the more notable studies centred on early fire warning systems, including using ground sensor technology to collect environmental data (Kadir, Irie, and Rosa, 2019) and improvement to Indonesia’s current Fire Danger Rating System using satellite data to identify fires caused by human activity (Sanjaya et al. 2019). Some academics have also evaluated the effectiveness of fire control regimes within the local communities, a few of which were by Watts et al. (2019) and Yamamoto, Takeuchi, and Köhlin (2020), whereby it was found that economic incentive is required to ensure the efficacy of community-based fire prevention policies.

A significant number of academics have also recently been diving into the issue of peatland mapping and analysis via satellite imagery, including major researchers in peatland research. Vernimmen et al. (2020, along with notable authors Hooijer and Page), for example, have been addressing the mapping of deep peat carbon stock from aerial and field measurements, and found that occurrences deep peat in eastern Sumatra were previously underestimated in earlier mapping exercises. Other relevant research papers further explored the subject matter, with one suggesting the use of an open digital mapping methodology in order to combine open data, field observations, and factors already known to affect peat thickness (Rudiyanto et al. 2018).

Findings by Vernimmen et al. (2020) showcasing the peat thickness measurement in selected areas of Bengkalis and Kubu Raya.

In summary, most of the recent literature on peat offer suggestions on improvements to existing research efforts and current peat management framework. Overall, regardless of the topic of the paper, the common conclusion is that much more still needs to be done when it comes to managing peat.

SIIA Haze Outlook 2020: Climatic Conditions & Weather Forecasts

On 23 June, the Haze Outlook 2020, written by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and Segi Enam Advisors, was released to the public. Essentially a risk assessment report on the transboundary haze incident within the ASEAN region for 2020, the report operated on a weather-peat-people framework and found that there is moderate risk of a severe transboundary haze incident this year.

With specific reference to weather, we gathered and analysed recent forecasts, meteorological indicators, and other weather-related risk factors for the year 2020. Overall, weather conditions for now appear favourable, particularly with regard to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenons. While NOAA’s March outlook expects an exceptionally warm year, the indicators for ENSO and IOD are relatively neutral.

Climate events indicate that dryer-warmer conditions are muted for the time being.

Over in Indonesia, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) forecasts that 30% of regions entering the dry season in the next three months after May will be experiencing drier-than-usual weather conditions, including areas in North Sumatra, Riau, and West Kalimantan. The agency also warned of the possibility of an early dry season for Bali, Nusa Tenggara, West Jawa, and Central Jawa. Similarly, several plantation corporations operating in Indonesia have also voiced concerns about the dryness and high temperature expectations throughout the region.

SIIA Haze Outlook 2020

For the second annual edition of its Haze Outlook, the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) teamed up with Segi Enam Advisors to provide a risk assessment report on the transboundary haze incident within the ASEAN region for the year 2020. Officially published last Thursday, our findings indicate a moderate risk of a severe transboundary haze incident in 2020. While weather outlook remains favourable, the Covid-19 pandemic has raised justifiable concerns about Indonesia's preparedness to deal with the fires and haze.

As co-authors, Segi Enam Advisors collated and examined qualitative and quantitative data from relevant literature published throughout the recent years. Working on a weather-peat-people framework, we looked at the latest academic research on, inter alia, peatland management and fire prevention as well policies and efforts with regard to the same. We also collected and analysed weather data, i.e. temperature and rainfall conditions, to complete the overall risk assessment of a haze for the year 2020.

Segi Enam also provided geospatial analysis of two key areas of fires incidences in the Riau and Central Kalimantan regions (please refer to Appendix A of the report). The two case studies give a geographical overview of the aforementioned areas as well as an analysis of hotspot locations detected in 2015 and 2019.