SIIA Haze Outlook 2020: Policy Directions for 2019-2020

The risk assessment on the possibility and severity of a haze this year made in the SIIA Haze Report 2020 (authored by the Singaporean Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and Segi Enam Advisors) involved analysing the recent policy directions undertaken by the Indonesian government.

Naturally, much of the analysis was focused on the Peatland Restoration Agency (Badan Restorasi Gambut or BRG), the agency first set up by President Joko Widodo in 2016 with the mandate to re-wet 2.67 million hectares of peatland across seven provinces by 2020. By end-2018, BRG reported that it has restored 780,000 hectares of peatland, although observers have pointed out that the lack of transparency and independent monitoring made it difficult to verify that claim (Jong, 2020; Gewin 2020).

BRG’s ambitious goal to re-wet 2.67 million hectares of peatland required the corporation of several agencies and a funding of at least 39 trillion rupiah (USD2.73 billion) (Jong, 2018) (Photo credit: BRG)

Recent policy efforts are also aimed to halve the number of hotspots from the 2015 count by 2019, beginning with ensuring that 2.4 million hectares of peatland remain unburned and identifying up to 731 villages as fire-prone communities (Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs of Indonesia/KKBP et al., 2017). The government has taken various measures in attempt to achieve this objective, including upgrading early fire responses, increasing the enforcement of existing laws regarding forest concessions, and developing adequate infrastructure (such as water management systems) in fire-prone areas.

Read the full report for more information: SIIA Haze Report 2020

SIIA Haze Outlook 2020: Recent Literature Findings

Continuing from our work on the Haze Outlook 2020 published on 23 June 2020, Segi Enam reviewed in brief the recent literature pertaining to Indonesian and Malaysian peatland and fires. In the past couple of years, there were nearly 150 research papers and articles published, with almost half focusing on fire occurrences. A smaller, but significant portion of these articles area also on peatland management and mapping, as well as people-related topics including agricultural livelihood and health impacts.

One of the more notable studies centred on early fire warning systems, including using ground sensor technology to collect environmental data (Kadir, Irie, and Rosa, 2019) and improvement to Indonesia’s current Fire Danger Rating System using satellite data to identify fires caused by human activity (Sanjaya et al. 2019). Some academics have also evaluated the effectiveness of fire control regimes within the local communities, a few of which were by Watts et al. (2019) and Yamamoto, Takeuchi, and Köhlin (2020), whereby it was found that economic incentive is required to ensure the efficacy of community-based fire prevention policies.

A significant number of academics have also recently been diving into the issue of peatland mapping and analysis via satellite imagery, including major researchers in peatland research. Vernimmen et al. (2020, along with notable authors Hooijer and Page), for example, have been addressing the mapping of deep peat carbon stock from aerial and field measurements, and found that occurrences deep peat in eastern Sumatra were previously underestimated in earlier mapping exercises. Other relevant research papers further explored the subject matter, with one suggesting the use of an open digital mapping methodology in order to combine open data, field observations, and factors already known to affect peat thickness (Rudiyanto et al. 2018).

Findings by Vernimmen et al. (2020) showcasing the peat thickness measurement in selected areas of Bengkalis and Kubu Raya.

In summary, most of the recent literature on peat offer suggestions on improvements to existing research efforts and current peat management framework. Overall, regardless of the topic of the paper, the common conclusion is that much more still needs to be done when it comes to managing peat.

SIIA Haze Outlook 2020: Climatic Conditions & Weather Forecasts

On 23 June, the Haze Outlook 2020, written by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and Segi Enam Advisors, was released to the public. Essentially a risk assessment report on the transboundary haze incident within the ASEAN region for 2020, the report operated on a weather-peat-people framework and found that there is moderate risk of a severe transboundary haze incident this year.

With specific reference to weather, we gathered and analysed recent forecasts, meteorological indicators, and other weather-related risk factors for the year 2020. Overall, weather conditions for now appear favourable, particularly with regard to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenons. While NOAA’s March outlook expects an exceptionally warm year, the indicators for ENSO and IOD are relatively neutral.

Climate events indicate that dryer-warmer conditions are muted for the time being.

Over in Indonesia, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) forecasts that 30% of regions entering the dry season in the next three months after May will be experiencing drier-than-usual weather conditions, including areas in North Sumatra, Riau, and West Kalimantan. The agency also warned of the possibility of an early dry season for Bali, Nusa Tenggara, West Jawa, and Central Jawa. Similarly, several plantation corporations operating in Indonesia have also voiced concerns about the dryness and high temperature expectations throughout the region.

SIIA Haze Outlook 2020

For the second annual edition of its Haze Outlook, the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) teamed up with Segi Enam Advisors to provide a risk assessment report on the transboundary haze incident within the ASEAN region for the year 2020. Officially published last Thursday, our findings indicate a moderate risk of a severe transboundary haze incident in 2020. While weather outlook remains favourable, the Covid-19 pandemic has raised justifiable concerns about Indonesia's preparedness to deal with the fires and haze.

As co-authors, Segi Enam Advisors collated and examined qualitative and quantitative data from relevant literature published throughout the recent years. Working on a weather-peat-people framework, we looked at the latest academic research on, inter alia, peatland management and fire prevention as well policies and efforts with regard to the same. We also collected and analysed weather data, i.e. temperature and rainfall conditions, to complete the overall risk assessment of a haze for the year 2020.

Segi Enam also provided geospatial analysis of two key areas of fires incidences in the Riau and Central Kalimantan regions (please refer to Appendix A of the report). The two case studies give a geographical overview of the aforementioned areas as well as an analysis of hotspot locations detected in 2015 and 2019.